Cross-Voting Fear as Congress Fights to Retain Rajya Sabha Seat in Haryana

Deepender Hooda's election as Lok Sabha MP from Rohtak on June 4 has left his Rajya Sabha seat vacant. According to the Representation of the People Act, 1951, the Election Commission must hold a byelection within six months of the vacancy. This means the Rajya Sabha election is likely to take place before the next state Assembly polls. 

The Numbers Game: A Delicate Balance of Power

After recent changes, the Haryana Vidhan Sabha now has 87 MLAs, with the majority mark at 44 members. The Congress currently has 29 MLAs and the support of three Independents, bringing their tally to 32. On the other hand, the BJP has 41 MLAs, along with the support of the Haryana Lokhit Party's lone MLA and an Independent, totaling 43 MLAs. 

The real game-changer could be the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) with its 10 MLAs. However, the JJP is facing internal divisions. Two of its MLAs have already pledged support to the BJP, while others have shown inclinations towards the Congress or have been critical of the JJP leadership.

The Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) with one MLA and another Independent have positioned themselves against the BJP, further complicating the political landscape. 

The Cross-Voting Factor: A Wild Card in Play 

The upcoming Rajya Sabha election will use an open ballot system, which means that MLAs' votes will not be secret. Interestingly, an MLA cannot be disqualified from the Vidhan Sabha for cross-voting in a Rajya Sabha poll. This opens up the possibility of MLAs voting against party lines without fear of losing their assembly seats. 

A Supreme Court judgment from 2006 stated that an MLA voting in a particular manner in a Rajya Sabha election would not face disqualification from their Assembly membership. At most, they might face action from their political party. This scenario creates a fertile ground for cross-voting, especially among JJP MLAs who might be eyeing tickets from either the BJP or Congress in the upcoming state elections. The lack of severe consequences for cross-voting adds an element of unpredictability to the election. 

Congress chief whip BB Batra acknowledged the complexity of the situation, stating, "It is going to be a very interesting election as the picture is not clear."  '

As the byelection approaches, all eyes will be on the JJP MLAs and Independents. Their decisions could sway the outcome, making this Rajya Sabha seat a crucial battleground in Haryana's political landscape. The Congress will need to work hard to secure loyalties and prevent cross-voting if they hope to retain the seat, while the BJP might see an opportunity to increase their Rajya Sabha tally through strategic alliances and potential defections.